Government-Military Tussle in Sudan

The presence of military coups in the news over the last nine months may lead individuals to believe they are a common prevalent issue. Starting from 1st February 2021, a coup d’état in Myanmar was set about in the early morning.  And just after seven months on Tuesday, September 7, 2021, heart-wrenching news of the Taliban taking over Afghanistan came to light. And recently a long-going tussle in Sudan has aired on each and every possible social platform. 

Sudan, situated in the northeast of the African continent has faced a major crisis due to the long-prevailing military government skirmish. 

To understand that we have to know the timeline of this fiasco, starting off from protests happening in December 2018 against bread price rise after the government eliminated subsidies, and then in February 2019, when Omar al-Bashir who was a former president of Sudan declared state and sacks cabinet and regional governors in bid to end weeks of protests against his rule. And finally, in April 2019, Omar al-Bashir was toppled by the military in a coup. September 2019, was a month when a new government had taken office under the President of the sovereignty council, Abdallah Hamdok who was then Sudan’s new Prime Minister, leading the country’s transitional cabinet months after a mass protest movement forced the military removal of long time autocratic President Omar al-Bashir. 

Sudan’s coup, in which the Prime Minister has been arrested and the given has been dissolved, is the latest crisis in the country’s turbulent history. Military leaders in the transitional government have demanded civilian counterparts and the replacement of the cabinet. Civilians dismissed this as a power grab. 

The army seized power last week in a coup that wiped out everything the Sudanese people had gained since Bashir’s military government was deposed in 2019. That revolution rekindled hope for the democratic rule not only in Sudan but throughout the Arab world. In retrospect, its brevity seems unavoidable. Sudan’s uprising may have ousted Bashir, but he left behind a military and security state with deep roots and complicated economic interests. When it became clear that the Sudanese people would not accept another military figurehead in place of Bashir, an agreement reached with civilian parties resulted in a transitional power-sharing agreement that should have paved the way for the elections.

Talking about the economic crisis, which has played a salient role in protests happening in Sudan. Sudan’s inflation had fallen for the first time under the country’s two-year-old transitional government, as the currency showed signs of stabilizing after a year of tough economic reforms. 

Inflation fell sharply from 422.8 percent in July to 387.56 percent in August, putting an end to a trend of sharp monthly increases that had brought inflation to levels not seen in decades.

And now the blockade in Port Sudan, surrounding roads, and fuel pipelines by Sayed Tirik, Beja tribe leader, resulted in a shortage of basic supplies. The government accused the military of assisting in the blockade in order to destabilize the regime.

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan was already the country’s most powerful figure, thanks to a power-sharing agreement between the military and the Change (FFC), a loose coalition of civilian groups. According to the terms of the agreement, Gen Burhan was to step down as Chairman of the Sovereign Council the following month. At that point, a civilian chosen by FFC  would become a civilian in government, better positioned to move forward with key items on their agenda. In principle, the government is committed to handing over ex-president Bashir to the International Criminal Court (ICC) also including former lieutenants  Gen Burhan and Gen Mohammad Hamdan, the leader of the parliamentary Rapid Support Forces. 

What will happen now to Sudan? 

The World Bank has suspended its aid to Sudan after the military there staged a coup against the civilian government. The African Union has suspended Sudan from the bloc over the “unconstitutional ” seizure of power. On top of that, the United States has frozen $700m in aid. 

Sudan’s new ruling club will be able to divide the country’s infrastructure, seize raw materials such as gold, and sell them to regional allies without being held accountable. They will have the firepower to put down rebellions in the country’s outlying areas.

Even if the coup succeeds, it will be a shaky victory,  weakened by constant policing and dissent suppression. Civic opposition to the coup may appear weak in comparison to the generals and their backers, but the military is always up against the people determined never to be ruled by force again.